Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says? Well, in 2018, China was selling its US Treasury securities. In 2019, it’s just the opposite. Not bad! Why? It is not obvious, but China…
What An Average Stock Market Correction Looks Like? Stock market corrections are normal. On average, there is one correction per year, during 71.6 days and a decline in stocks of about 15.6% Image: Visual Capitalist
Investing Like Sheep (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Future Fears “People want to be told what to think. I don’t! People need to listen with the mind as well as their ears, and not just repeat…
Record Valuation Dispersion 1951-2017 Today, there’s an extreme valuation divergence. The crowd invests in the most expensive part of the market. And the Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the…
Sell in May and Go Away? Just keep in mind that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive in May. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to…
Has Apple’s Intrinsic Value Really Changed Since December Lows? Not really! but Apple is up nearly 50% since the December lows. Is there a method to the market’s madness? Yes, see our advanced stock market…
Why the US Banking System Is Divided in Two Groups? The delinquency rate on credit-card loans at all commercial banks is very low, whereas the delinquency rate on credit-card loans is high only at commercial…
Where Does Inflation Come From? Mainly inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Over the long term, Nominal GDP = Money Supply x…
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year Because the third-year of a president’s term is positive (91% of the time since 1925) and in six of the past seven years the US…
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons:…