Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.…
The Short Interest in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to Lowest Since Late 2017 Is it a contrarian indicator? Only time will tell… The market is strong and historically, the 3rd year of a president’s…
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High Bulls make money and are happy again… Yes, but until when? Keep in mind that the US stock market is currently overvalued by 9%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Is Residential Investment a Drag Since the Great Recession? Indeed, it is very low compared to other business cycles. And because housing is already in a slump relative to other economic cycles, it shouldn’t cause a…
Since 1990, No Recessions Without 4% Wage Growth Since the beginning of the Great Recession, wage growth has been slow in this business cycle. But keep in mind that since 1990, no recessions without 4%…
How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not…
“Hedge Funds Are Shorting the VIX at a Rate Never Seen Before” -Bloomberg This certainly won’t not end well. Why do we never learn some lessons and repeat the same mistakes? Image: Hedgeye Risk Management…
Why Do Eurozone Bond Investors Accept Zero Long-Term Interest Rates? Because they have a deflationary view of the euro area economy. Now, investors are losing so much money just by holding German bonds in real terms…
China trade deal could spark a big rally, says Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. He comments on…
Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is…
Howard Marks on market’s record highs, potential risks Howard Marks speaks about market’s record highs and doesn’t see a lot of euphoria. However, we are in a Fed-induced bubble due to ultra low rates.