Announced Share Buybacks in the U.S. The ongoing pipeline of stock repurchase programs demonstrates strong confidence among executives and continues to underpin the U.S. stock market through 2025 and beyond. Image: Bloomberg

Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology, industrial, and financial sectors have attracted substantial inflows over the past year, the energy and health care sectors have experienced notable outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates While earnings projections for 2026 are very optimistic, it is prudent to view them as a stretch compared to historical norms, with significant risk if actual earnings fall short. Image:…

New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit its nineteenth record high of 2025, underscoring persistent market optimism. The index has gained 10.55% so far this year, driven by robust…

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Historically, the S&P 500 struggles in September, with higher volatility and an average return of -0.7% since 1964. The index has risen in only 46% of…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of September has been a seasonally weak period for the S&P 500, ranking as the sixth weakest half-month in the annual cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs…

U.S. IG Credit Spreads Tight IG credit spreads signal both confidence and caution—they reflect strong fundamentals but also potential complacency. Active monitoring of credit spreads is crucial for effective risk management in this environment. Image:…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

U.S. Household Net Worth as % of Disposal Personal Income While the U.S. household net worth has risen to historic levels due to assets like stocks and real estate, AI-driven financial gains mainly benefit the…

U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations While S&P 500 valuations may be poor tools for short-term timing, they are useful indicators of market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment…

S&P 500 and 20-Day Moving Average Since April, after tariff-related lows, the S&P 500 has used the 20-day moving average as a floor during pullbacks, continuing its upward trend and sustaining a bullish outlook. Image:…