Category: Blog

Sector ETF Flows ETF flows held strong as 2025 progressed, with another solid week for equity funds, while investors kept rotating from Financials to Healthcare. Image: Strategas Asset Management

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Why do U.S. stocks shine in December? Historically, it’s when the Santa Claus rally shows up, delivering an average 1.2% gain since 1964 and finishing higher 70% of the time. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment After a short-lived reset earlier this year, the Euphoriameter — a composite of forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment — is rolling over again from record-high optimism, flashing what could be an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Index and 50-Day Moving Average By reclaiming its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 sends a strong technical signal that momentum is back on the bulls’ side and the rally may not be done yet. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – 1997-2001 vs. Mid 2023-2025 Analog The S&P 500’s mid-2023 to 2025 bull market echoes the late-1990s dot-com meltup in both momentum and mood. For now, the trend remains intact, even as pockets of skepticism linger. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Index Returns in November U.S. stocks bottomed on November 20, snapping back over the next three sessions. Late‑month trading in November tends to brighten sentiment and put fresh wind behind the market’s sails. Image: Carson Investment Research

Bear Market – Number of S&P 500 Stocks Down 20% or More More than a third of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more, even as the index holds up. It’s a reminder that market breadth is thinning, often a sign of late-cycle fatigue. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 21.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

U.S. Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP Corporate America’s profit share remains elevated in 2025, a sign that the pandemic-era surge in profitability has proven surprisingly durable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day This Thanksgiving, markets have one more reason to give thanks. The S&P 500 edges near all-time highs, turning the holiday into a feast of bullish fervor that even the turkey is getting a taste of investor euphoria. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃😎

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.12% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.