Category: Blog

VIX Seasonality At this time of year, volatility usually rises, driven by a mix of market expectations, macroeconomic data, and seasonal investor behavior. Image: Topdown Charts

Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Although short interest in the S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months—indicating increased investor caution—it does not currently signal widespread bearishness or panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Equities – Global Valuation Range While the U.S.–non-U.S. valuation gap is unusually wide, non-U.S. valuations remain close to their historical norms. As a result, international markets offer comparatively better value than the U.S., despite not being historically cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Funds Rate Target The current fed funds rate aligns with economic policy rules, maintaining stability without urging aggressive cuts. A potential 25 basis point cut falls within the lower range, but substantial rate cuts are not strongly justified. Image: Deutsche Bank

Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward revisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The unusually high divergence of current earnings from their long-term growth trend often precedes significant market corrections or reversals, suggesting that investors face elevated risks despite prevailing optimism. Image: Real Investment Advice

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in July. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits declined to 1.354 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Robust earnings beats and notable revenue surprises—particularly among large tech and mega-cap companies—along with easing tariff concerns and steady economic indicators, have driven positive earnings sentiment in the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally Given the current low volatility, a large rally seems unlikely; however, the rising probability of a 30% drawdown signals that downside risks for the S&P 500 is elevated, warranting caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research