S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October A slow start to November may not tell the whole story. When the S&P 500 hits a new high in October, history leans bullish, with the index averaging 3.5% over November and December and finishing higher nearly nine times out of ten. Image: Carson Investment…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 Early November weakness hasn’t derailed the bulls. Seasonal tailwinds, strong earnings, and steady inflows are lining up behind a potential year-end rally in the S&P 500. Image: Ned Davis Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 2.1% in October. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates Heading into 2026, hyperscale AI players face the prospect of a sharp pullback in capital spending, likely putting fresh strain on valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt to U.S. Market Cap While margin debt has been rising, its share of total U.S. market value still sits at manageable levels. That keeps leverage risks in check and suggests investors could take on more borrowing if equities keep their momentum. Image: Bloomberg
Citi U.S. Earnings Revision Index and S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s bull market remains firmly in place, with upside potential into 2026 fueled by earnings upgrades and upbeat corporate guidance. Image: Bloomberg
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Markets remain divided over a December rate cut, with upcoming jobs and inflation reports set to shape expectations. The Fed may ease again if the economy softens, but another move this year is looking less likely. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Total Real Return of $1000 Investment with Dollar Cost Average vs. Valuations Sure, dollar-cost averaging can dull the pain of bad timing, but it won’t erase it. Even with the Fed’s heavy hand, recovery from a bear market rarely happens overnight. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 After Four Months Above the 50-Day MA Ends A break below the 50-day moving average after four months of strength might set off alarm bells, but history has usually rewarded patience. The S&P 500 index has gained roughly 10% a year later since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
NYSE Margin Debt and S&P 500 Margin debt on the NYSE has seen the second fastest spike on record over the past six months. Spikes in margin debt at a much faster pace than broad market returns have sometimes preceded market peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Equity Volatility vs. Credit Volatility Credit markets are calm, with volatility running below its long-term average, but equity volatility tells a different story, pointing to a more anxious tone in stocks. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC