Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than just liquidity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Volatility – VIX Index Oil’s sharp swings on the latest geopolitical shocks help explain the elevated VIX. Calmer energy prices tend to bring volatility back down. For now, the oil tape is driving broader market mood. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value Currency markets move more on expectations around interest rates, economic data, and geopolitics than on fundamentals. The U.S. dollar’s stabilization at neutral levels reflects Fed policy uncertainty and ongoing global tensions. Image: Real Investment Advice
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Win Streaks If February ends in the green, the Dow would notch 10 straight monthly gains, a streak seen only a handful of times since 1900. That strength says plenty about the market’s staying power. Image: Carson Investment Research
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations stand. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh wave of economic momentum. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax cuts and deregulation faded fast as trade-war fears took center stage. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Based on the Chinese Zodiac Signs The Year of the Horse has begun. Playful as zodiac signs may be on market trends, the Year of the Horse usually trots rather than gallops, with U.S. stocks rising an average 6.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
YoY Growth in S&P 500 Cash Use Buyback fatigue among hyperscalers points to a strategic pivot: cash is moving to long-term AI projects over short-term shareholder returns, increasing stock volatility as buyback support fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 Software Total Return Bitcoin has been trading hand in hand with U.S. software names. Its current drawdown may stick around for a while if the pressure on tech doesn’t ease. But when the mood shifts, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin snaps back fast. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond