Global Equity Valuations The market environment favors global ex-U.S., small-cap, and value stocks for their cheap valuations and growth potential, while U.S., large-cap, and growth stocks face valuation headwinds and higher downside risk. Image: Topdown Charts
Stock Buybacks vs. S&P 500 With companies entering blackout periods in mid-June, share buybacks will slow, reducing a major source of equity demand. In an overbought market, this could amplify any weakness until buybacks return in late July. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events While geopolitical events may cause short-term market disruptions, markets have historically shown resilience and recovered over time, especially beyond the usual 12-month tactical window. Image: Carson Investment Research
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors With investor allocation to equities at an all-time high, the market is increasingly vulnerable to volatility and significant losses, particularly if a downturn occurs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative asset. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey is closely correlated with the performance of U.S. small-cap stocks, making the NFIB index a valuable economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and are now in positive territory for 2025, fueling renewed optimism among bulls. Image: Carson Investment Research
Buybacks – Announced Share Repurchases for S&P 500 Companies In 2025, U.S. companies are announcing record share buybacks, with repurchases projected to surpass $1 trillion for the year—a move intended to support stock prices, improve financial metrics, and reassure investors. Image: J.P. Morgan