Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment A Fear & Greed Index of 65 shows the market leaning toward greed, with increased optimism and risk-taking, but it is still moderate and does not indicate extreme risk or overheating. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in May to 450K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns compared to investing at random days. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator currently stands at -0.1. Historically, readings at this level have tended to be followed by gains in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads While tight high-yield credit spreads reflect strong market confidence, they also warrant caution as they may mask underlying vulnerabilities and investor complacency. Therefore, vigilant monitoring of credit spreads is essential. Image: Topdown Charts
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) The elevated valuation levels currently seen in U.S. and global equity markets typically indicate a risk of lower future returns, unless earnings growth accelerates sufficiently to justify these prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects US real GDP will expand at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q2 2025, marking a significant rebound from the prior quarter’s contraction. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock In recent months, the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth has shown signs of deterioration. Is an improvement possible before the end of the year? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this July would tie the longest winning streak for the month. Image: Carson Investment Research