U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet the shock will be short-lived. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count It’s too soon to call it a return to normal, but some ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz and policymakers talking about resumption are giving markets a glimmer of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.38% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Public Opinion on Military Action in Iran Rising U.S. gasoline prices, together with the pushback against strikes on Iran, could push policymakers toward a brief and contained conflict. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch above the long-term average, pointing to a relatively calm risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has slipped after recent events, sitting just below neutral, as markets take a more defensive stance. Market sentiment has clearly cooled amid growing uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 27.98, the S&P 500 sits firmly in oversold territory, putting bargain hunters on alert as the odds of a reflexive rally are increasing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and delivered 288% gains. With this one only in its fourth, there’s good reason to think the run isn’t done. Image: Carson Investment Research