S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin vs. Gold Market Capitalization If the trend toward digital financial assets continues and Bitcoin adoption expands, Bitcoin’s upside potential compared to gold is substantial—fueled by its fixed supply, digital utility, and strong growth trajectory. Image: J.P. Morgan
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators The post-Liberation Day environment reflects a strong rebound in investor confidence and a more bullish market stance, underpinned by easing tariff fears, trade deal progress, and supportive economic and technical factors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq Composite – 2020 vs. 2025 Analog The Nasdaq’s 2025 market pattern mirrors the 2020 pandemic crash and recovery in terms of price movement and investor sentiment, reflecting resilience and a bullish trend. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After a Three Month Gain of >25% More good news for bulls: Historically, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 25% over three months, it has never been lower 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after these rallies, it has averaged gains of over 21%. Image: Carson…
Financial Conditions Indices Looser U.S. financial conditions bode well for economic growth by fueling consumer spending and business investment—two vital engines driving the economy forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 RSI With the S&P 500’s RSI running high, caution is warranted. Market participants should be ready for a potential pullback or a period of consolidation as the market digests overbought levels before pushing higher again. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold When the commodities (ex-gold) to gold ratio falls to an extreme low and then turns upward, it has historically signaled the beginning of major cyclical bull markets in commodities. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Average Return After a Down Day The year 2025 stands out for the S&P 500, especially because of its resilience following daily declines. Since January, it has rebounded by an average of 0.32% the day after a drop, underscoring its strong ability to recover quickly. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 usually rallies, delivering a median return of 2.0% in the first four weeks, fueled by positive earnings surprises that strengthen investor confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation