U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation U.S. stock correlations have recently surged to their highest levels since late 2022, indicating that stocks are moving more in tandem than usual—a trend that typically emerges during periods of heightened uncertainty or market stress. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500: What Happens If You Miss the 10 Best/Worst Days Missing the S&P 500’s best days has a devastating impact on long-term returns, and the best and worst days are often clustered together, making market timing extremely risky and usually counterproductive. Image: Topdown Charts
Central Bank and Institutional Demand for Gold Goldman Sachs expects ongoing strong demand from central banks—especially those in emerging markets—to continue boosting gold prices through 2025. Central bank gold purchases have risen fivefold since 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to multi-year highs recently. Yet, as macroeconomic factors change and Bitcoin develops as an asset class, this correlation with traditional equities may decrease. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields A rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields typically leads to lower equity valuations, with the impact most acute for high-priced, growth-oriented companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Company Actual vs. Modeled FY2 P/E Ratio Valuations for the Magnificent Seven now sit slightly below modeled fair value, especially in light of their robust fundamentals and earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Target for 2025 In the coming months, robust earnings, a weaker dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and easing recession fears are expected to make U.S. equities a key driver of the global equity rally. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar and Reserve Status Could the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency? Historically, leading reserve currencies have held their status for about a hundred years. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Ex. Financials – Net Leverage and Interest Coverage Since the Global Financial Crisis, there has been a sharp increase in the median S&P 500 stock’s leverage ratio, a trend that could have substantial effects on market risk and volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research