Valuations – Spread of S&P 500 Minus S&P 500 Equal Weight The significant valuation gaps between the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 result from the high valuations and growth expectations of large companies, which emphasize market concentration and investment risks. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold – Global Central Bank Holdings Central bank gold demand cycles respond to global economic and political factors. Recently, demand has increased amid financial instability, currency trust concerns, inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical conflicts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Growth Analysts project 7% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 1-Year U.S. Inflation by Party Inflation expectations in the U.S. over the coming 12 months differ sharply along partisan lines, with Republicans anticipating low inflation and Democrats expecting it to rise significantly. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected to drive consumer prices higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The NFIB Small Business Survey’s annual rate of change closely mirrors U.S. small-cap stock performance, making the NFIB index a key economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings of Tech Companies While U.S. tech stocks benefit from a wave of strong performance fueled by both hype and solid earnings fundamentals, non-tech stocks continue to experience prolonged earnings stagnation. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end. Image: The Daily Chartbook