The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In May, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.1%, suggesting that economic growth in 2025 may slow significantly compared to 2024. Image: The Conference Board
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns. Image: Yahoo Finance
Concentration – Top 10, Top 3 and Top 1 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) China has one of the lowest market capitalization concentrations worldwide, with its top ten companies comprising only 17% of total market cap—much less than the US’s 34%—indicating greater growth potential in China. Image: Goldman Sachs…
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard
Real S&P 500 Index While geopolitical events can cause significant short-term market disruptions, their long-term impact is usually limited, and markets frequently rebound and continue their upward trajectory. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if shorts are forced to cover. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Concentration – Top 10 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) Compared to the U.S. market, China’s equity market currently shows a historically low level of market capitalization concentration, indicating greater growth potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.9tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option exercise and settlement. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
3-Month Rolling S&P 500 Retail Flows Retail traders have demonstrated robust buying activity in recent months, with Goldman Sachs estimating net purchases of approximately $20 billion in U.S. stocks over the past three months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In May, U.S. building permits declined to 1.393 million, below expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank