Category: Blog

Gold Positioning Rising long positions in gold over the past two weeks point to strengthening demand, a classic bullish sign that keeps the rally in play. Image: Bloomberg

Asset Class Flow The surge of capital into U.S. stock funds in 2025 was largely fueled by optimism around growth prospects, strong earnings, and heavy investments by tech and AI giants. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

S&P 500 Monthly Gains Tracker Seven months of uninterrupted gains in the S&P 500 mark a rare streak, one that often cools around this stage. Even so, history tends to favor the bulls over the next year, just with a bumpier ride. Image: Topdown Charts

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns December usually puts Wall Street in a festive mood. The reason? The Santa Claus rally typically shows up, with U.S. stocks averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950 and ending higher roughly 73% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Fed easing sounds bullish, but not when growth cracks. In recessions, U.S. stocks have often fallen despite cheaper money. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts Traders are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point move and just a 23% likelihood of another cut in January 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn’t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Magnificent Seven Returns With one sector and seven giants driving the world’s biggest stock market, volatility isn’t going anywhere. Investors should brace for more swings in 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index Returns – Zweig Breadth Thrust Signals Since WWII The Zweig Breadth Thrust that flashed in late April 2025 drew plenty of doubters. Six months later, the S&P 500 has roared nearly 23% higher. Now, another ZBT may be forming, hinting the bulls still have fuel in the tank. Image: Carson Investment Research

Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations Whenever earnings detach from their long-term growth trend, markets usually follow with painful corrections. The current gap hints that risk is quietly building beneath the surface. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years usually test investors’ nerves, but history leans in favor of the bulls: U.S. stocks typically outperform in a President’s second term, averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research