Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 Bullish sentiment has experienced a significant reversal. Historically, elevated levels of optimism among retail investors and low volatility in financial markets have frequently indicated short-term market peaks. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through…
S&P 500 and Leveraged Long vs. Short ETF Volumes The degree of activity in leveraged long vs. short U.S. equity ETFs has experienced a substantial decline as sentiment shifts. Image: Topdown Charts
Median S&P 500 Performance Since 2000, the median S&P 500 performance after 6 consecutive declines has been 8.9% over the next 6 months, indicating a potential for a significant rebound and recovery in the stock…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index of 59.48 indicates a…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 55.1% in April. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII U.S. investor sentiment bull-bear spread has slightly turned negative, indicating a decrease in bullish sentiment and an increase in bearish sentiment among individual investors. Image:…
U.S. Economy A recent Deutsche Bank survey found that 45% of participants predict a “no-landing” scenario for the U.S. economy by the end of 2024. This suggests no recession and inflation will remain above the…
U.S. Nominal GDP The strength of U.S. nominal GDP has been crucially supported by fiscal and monetary policies, along with other contributing factors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Russell 2000 Forward P/E vs. Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Returns Should long-term investors increase their allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, given the potential for 9% annualized ten-year returns suggested by the absolute forward P/E for the…