3-Month Rolling S&P 500 Retail Flows Retail traders have demonstrated robust buying activity in recent months, with Goldman Sachs estimating net purchases of approximately $20 billion in U.S. stocks over the past three months. Image:…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In May, U.S. building permits declined to 1.393 million, below expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions Image: Federal…
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the…
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost…
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples Overvaluation in the S&P 500, especially among tech and AI stocks, is a legitimate concern in light of downward revisions to earnings estimates for 2025 and the high degree of index…
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…
Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds U.S. stocks are at their strongest relative to bonds since Trump’s inauguration, supported by persistent risk appetite and the perception of U.S. market resilience amid global uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Net Margin Debt So far, U.S. margin debt as a share of market capitalization remains elevated, which reflects ongoing confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In May, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…
U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash Americans’ love for stocks has driven household equity allocations to historic highs, increasing wealth but also sparking concerns about market stability and the risks of shifting investor…