Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation Higher oil prices often drive up U.S. inflation by raising energy and transportation costs, which ripple through the economy. This can temporarily pressure stock prices via squeezed corporate profits and consumer spending. Image: Real Investment Advice
Weight of Top 10 Holdings in Each Country’s ETF The dominance of the top 10 U.S. stocks has raised alarms about market concentration, but a look across other major economies shows the U.S. isn’t as top-heavy as many believe. Image: Carson Investment Research
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors earn little extra for taking on stock risk over safer bonds, leaving equities a tougher call and prone to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets a lift, Treasuries draw buyers unless energy prices spiral, and equities typically retreat. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share U.S. corporate earnings have led the pack in recent years, but overseas profits are finally closing the gap. That momentum shift could mark an important turning point, one that opens opportunities in international large-caps. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility keeps climbing as Middle East tensions shake investors, pushing the MOVE index above 95 and pulling stocks lower. The spike tells you everything about the market mood right now. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with a lag, showing up in valuations roughly a year down the road. Image: Bloomberg
Distributions od Returns of World Tech vs. World ex. TMT The tech sector is undergoing a valuation reset this year, following years of outsized gains driven by AI hype and momentum investing. Over the last half-century, few periods have been as rough for tech stocks in relative terms. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Yield Curves The yield curve’s normalization following its 2022 inversion eased recession worries for now, but historical patterns still suggest caution post-uninversion. Image: Real Investment Advice
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors watching for signs of a slowdown. Image: Yahoo Finance