Real U.S. Consumer Spending During the first half of 2025, U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending contracted—the weakest pace seen in over 15 years—driven by cautious consumer behavior amid tariff concerns and economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
90/90 Days and What the S&P 500 Did Next The “90/90 days” back to 1980 often coincide with major policy events or changes, serving as drivers or inflection points for markets. Powell’s recent dovish pivot at Jackson Hole is a notable example. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks In 2025, strong buyback activity by S&P 500 companies highlights their optimistic growth outlook, solid financial health, and strategic capital use to reward shareholders despite market volatility and uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Revenues The reported 4.8% real revenue growth for the S&P 500 excluding energy in Q2 2025 is a strong indicator of economic strength, marking the highest growth since early 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard
Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage With gross leverage remaining high and net leverage near its historical norm, hedge funds are able to sustain increased trading activity without markedly increasing their net market exposure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The rebound in the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth shows promising signs of continuing through year-end, supported by broader stock participation, easing monetary policy prospects, and steady earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Buybacks In 2025, record share buybacks show that S&P 500 companies remain confident in their financial health and committed to shareholder returns amid economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation