U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads While tight high-yield credit spreads reflect strong market confidence, they also warrant caution as they may mask underlying vulnerabilities and investor complacency. Therefore, vigilant monitoring of credit spreads is essential. Image: Topdown Charts
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock In recent months, the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth has shown signs of deterioration. Is an improvement possible before the end of the year? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this July would tie the longest winning streak for the month. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Households’ (Incl. Hedge Fund) Asset Allocation U.S. households are currently heavily overweight in equities relative to fixed income, reflecting strong conviction in U.S. equity markets despite ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious positioning in bonds. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s near-overbought technical condition raises the likelihood of short-term volatility or a consolidation phase as the market absorbs recent gains. Image: Bloomberg
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The combination of strong earnings growth, a more favorable geopolitical environment, and supportive technical indicators has led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Tech IPOs vs. Non-Tech IPOs Tech IPO shares have soared an average of 108% above their offering price. By comparison, non-tech IPOs have gained 49%, a solid return but significantly less than the surge seen in tech offerings. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 Index and Percent of Members Above 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 nears its all-time high, but without improved breadth and broader sector participation, the market risks a correction. Rising indexes amid weak breadth often mark an inflection point, hinting at possible market weakness ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Number of Unique Names in Top 10 Ranking Since 2014 to Date Over the past decade, less than 20 companies have consistently ranked among the top 10 by market capitalization in both the U.S. and China. This reflects the dominance of a small group of large firms within each market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…