Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a geopolitical risk premium. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global GS Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions tightened by 14 basis points, which typically dampens spending and investment by households and firms, especially when triggered by geopolitical shocks like the current Middle East escalation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM signal growing confidence in 2026 earnings. Momentum still leans toward strength rather than slowdown, though the STOXX 600 continues to lag behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns March has a long track record of lifting the S&P 500, often kicking off with a burst of momentum. But markets love to surprise us when everyone expects a rally. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns March and April have a history of treating U.S. stocks well, as seasonal tailwinds lift sentiment. Maybe a dose of spring optimism is making the rounds on trading desks. History, for now, is on the bulls’ side. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In the end, short-term jitters rarely outweigh strong fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in February for the second straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing Index hitting 52.4 and easily beating forecasts for 51.5. That’s a good sign for the economy. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year…
AAII Asset Allocation In February, U.S. retail investors dumped stocks, shifted into bonds, and cut cash holdings to their lowest since late 2021 as confidence in equities faded and markets braced for a bumpier spring. Image: Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high concentration. Concentration helps on the way up, but it hurts when leaders stumble. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Quantitative…
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World War II. Staying invested often pays off after the dust settles. Image: Carson Investment Research