Trade Policy Uncertainty When trade policy uncertainty peaks, the S&P 500 often posts positive returns. Markets tend to over-discount risks during uncertain periods, and relief rallies are common once worst-case scenarios are avoided or resolved. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth U.S. job growth below 1.2% has historically signaled recession risk since 1960. In 2025, growth is under this threshold, yet the Fed considers the labor market healthy and sees no immediate need for further intervention. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Spot Gold Gold posted its first back-to-back weekly losses of 2025 as improved risk sentiment, shifting rate expectations, and easing geopolitical tensions drove prices down from recent highs. Image: Bloomberg
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of May has been a seasonally weak period for the S&P 500, ranking as the fourth weakest half-month in the annual cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Return During May The “sell in May and go away” adage is more myth than practical advice. Rather than trying to time the market, focusing on long-term goals is wiser-especially since May has delivered positive returns in 9 of the past 10 years. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in April stands at 48.7%, above the consensus forecast of 47.9%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. Click…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E Investors continue to assign a higher earnings multiple to the S&P 500 market cap-weighted index than to the equal-weight index, reflecting a clear preference for the growth potential and market dominance of larger companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price of Gold While gold remains in a long-term bull market, short-term pullbacks are normal following strong advances-especially as factors driving safe-haven demand begin to fade. Image: The Daily Shot
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Despite a strong rally this week, the S&P 500 index ended April down 0.76%. No need to panic-this isn’t a call to “Make Bears Great Again!” unless you prefer market declines. Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
Tariffs in United States History While tariffs played a crucial role in the early industrialization of the U.S., their relevance in today’s global economy is questionable-rather like trying to use a rotary phone in a world dominated by smartphones. Image: Deutsche Bank